"There will be arguments for weeks about who should be in, who shouldn’t, and what the committee got wrong, but for now, the focus shifts to the matchups we will see on the field."
The College Football Playoff field is officially set, and as expected, the committee’s choices stirred plenty of controversy. Miami finally jumped Notre Dame in the final rankings to claim the last at-large spot, while Alabama’s 28 to 7 loss to Georgia in the SEC Championship did nothing to budge the Crimson Tide from No. 9. Tulane (AAC champion) and James Madison (Sun Belt champion) secured the final two automatic bids as the highest-ranked Group of Five champions, following Duke’s collapse into a five-loss ACC title season.
There will be arguments for weeks about who should be in, who shouldn’t, and what the committee got wrong, but for now, the focus shifts to the matchups we will see on the field. The opening round includes two rematches, Oklahoma vs Alabama and Ole Miss vs Tulane, along with three programs navigating coaching changes heading into postseason play. Tulane’s Jon Sumrall and James Madison’s Bob Chesney will coach their teams one last time before departing for Florida and UCLA, while Ole Miss begins the Pete Golding era after Lane Kiffin left for LSU.
Oddsmakers have weighed in. Here’s how each first round showdown shapes up, and who awaits the winner.
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma
Line: Alabama favored by 1.5 | Total: 40.5
Friday, Dec. 19 — 8 p.m.
The first of two rematches sends Alabama on the road to Norman, the only road favorite of the first round. Oklahoma secured its playoff spot largely because of its 23-21 win over the Crimson Tide three weeks ago, followed by narrow defensive-driven wins over Missouri and LSU.
Neither offense has been sharp. Oklahoma hasn’t scored more than 23 points in its last three victories, but its defense has carried the load, generating turnovers, field position, and even points. That same defensive pressure helped beat Alabama the first time.
The Crimson Tide enter at 10-3, becoming the first team in playoff history with three losses. Alabama’s offense under Ty Simpson must clean up the turnovers and inconsistency that showed again in the SEC title game. With two weeks to rest and reset, Alabama hopes to look like the version that beat Georgia earlier in the season.
The winner advances to the Rose Bowl to face No. 1 Indiana, the Big Ten champion.
No. 10 Miami at No. 7 Texas A&M
Line: Texas A&M favored by 4.5 | Total: 51.5
Saturday, Dec. 20 — 12 p.m.
These teams met in the 2022 and 2023 season openers, both won by the home team. Texas A&M hopes that trend continues. The Aggies enter at 11-1 with wins over No. 8 Notre Dame, No. 20 LSU, and No. 22 Missouri, their only loss coming to Texas during rivalry week.
Miami surged late in the season, finishing 10-2 and jumping Notre Dame for the final at-large bid. The Hurricanes boast one of the nation’s best defenses, allowing only 13.8 points per game, and own wins over No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 18 USF, No. 18 Florida State, and No. 22 Pitt. Their only setbacks came in close finishes against Louisville and SMU.
Texas A&M stumbled late, nearly dropping a game to South Carolina after losing to Texas. Miami looked stronger down the stretch, but College Station is one of the toughest road environments in college football.
The winner faces No. 2 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl.
No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Line: Ole Miss favored by 17.5 | Total: 56.5
Saturday, Dec. 20 — 3:30 p.m.
Ole Miss routed Tulane 45 to 10 in September, and oddsmakers expect a similar result despite the coaching changes. Tulane grabbed the last Group of Five bid after finishing 11-2, beating Memphis, UTSA, and Navy to win the AAC title. Their only losses came to Ole Miss and SMU.
Ole Miss comes in at 11-1 with its only loss to SEC champion Georgia. The Rebels posted top tier wins over Oklahoma, LSU, Texas A&M, and Tulane earlier in the season. They now begin the Pete Golding era after Lane Kiffin left for LSU.
Tulane will still have Jon Sumrall coaching for this game before he heads to Florida, but the Green Wave will need far more than coaching stability to reverse what happened in September. Rematches are historically unpredictable—but Ole Miss has every matchup advantage on paper.
Winner moves on to face SEC champion No.3 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl.
No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Line: Oregon favored by 21.5 | Total: 50.5
Saturday, Dec. 20 — 7:30 p.m.
James Madison enters as the biggest underdog of the playoff. The Dukes earned their first ever CFP ranking this season and finished 11-1, dominating nearly every opponent they faced. Their closest win was a four-point decision against Washington State, while their only loss came to Louisville.
Oregon stands at 11-1, with a strong résumé that includes victories over Penn State, Iowa, and USC. The Ducks rank among the nation's best defensively, giving up only 14.8 points per game, and will have a significant size and depth advantage at nearly every position group.
For the Dukes to pull off a historic upset, they’ll have to take risks, fourth downs, trick plays, tempo, and aggression. Oregon will try to bury the game early with its run game and explosive downfield passing.
The winner advances to face Big 12 champion No. 4 Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl.
Key Stat
Alabama became the first team in playoff history with three losses.
Final Score
Alabama 7, Oklahoma 28
